Trump’s Theatrics and Reality

Anindya Hazra & Sourav Goswami

A cornerstone of Trump’s foreign policy critique was his dismissal of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal as a “horrible, one-sided agreement” that failed to ensure long-term peace. In 2018, his administration unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA and reinstated stringent economic sanctions on Iran, arguing that maximum pressure would deter Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. However, experts widely agree that this move backfired. As noted by Max Boot in The Washington Post (June 13), the JCPOA–though imperfect–had successfully dismantled 97% of Iran’s fissile material and two-thirds of its centrifuges, extending its nuclear breakout time to at least one year. Post-Trump, this window has shrunk to mere weeks, heightening proliferation risks.

The Trump administration has sought to distance itself from the Iran-Israel conflict, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserting that Iran acted independently and that the US played no role. Yet evidence suggests otherwise. Reports from The Times of Israel (June 13) reveal that US-led nuclear negotiations with Iran were a façade, designed to lull Tehran into a false sense of security while enabling covert Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear scientists and military officials. Furthermore, Middle East Eye (June 13) documented US shipments of hundreds of Hellfire missiles to Israel during this period, underscoring Washington’s tacit complicity in escalating hostilities.

The conflict threatens to destabilise critical maritime chokepoints, including the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, through which 21% and 10% of global oil shipments transit daily, respectively. A protracted war could spike oil prices to $120 per barrel, triggering inflationary shocks and supply chain disruptions worldwide. For oil-dependent economies like India, China, and Japan, the consequences would be severe, potentially destabilising financial markets and exacerbating energy insecurity.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Zionist policies, bolstered by Trump’s unwavering support, have systematically undermined peace efforts since the 1990s. The Oslo Accords, which promised a two-state solution, were sabotaged by Netanyahu’s political machinations. Trump’s alignment with Netanyahu’s expansionist agenda–exemplified by the recognition of Israeli settlements in the West Bank–has further entrenched regional divisions. As scholar Jeffrey Sachs observed, the decline of diplomacy has ushered in an era of coercive foreign policy, where nations are forced into submission or face annihilation.

India’s refusal to endorse the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) joint statement condemning the Iran-Israel hostilities marks a significant departure from its erstwhile non-aligned posture. While all other SCO members unanimously criticised the attacks and called for de-escalation, India abstained–a move interpreted as tacit alignment with Israel. This aligns with reports of a post-strike phone conversation between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu, wherein the latter reportedly sought India’s support. Though the details remain undisclosed, India’s non-participation in multilateral censure signals a strategic tilt toward Israel, despite Iran’s historical role as a key regional ally.

India’s continued investments in Iran’s Chabahar Port–a linchpin for bypassing Pakistan and accessing Central Asia, Russia, and West Asia–highlight the tension between its economic interests and geopolitical choices. However, its neutral stance on the Iran-Israel conflict risks undermining this critical infrastructure project, potentially destabilising India’s connectivity ambitions. Furthermore, as Iran threatens to disrupt maritime trade routes in response to Israeli aggression, India faces collateral risks to its energy imports, with 10% of its crude oil transiting the Persian Gulf (US Energy Information Administration, 2023).

Trump’s presidency highlights the dangers of prioritising political theatrics over substantive diplomacy. While his “America First” mantra and anti-war branding have galvanised his base–and profited his business ventures, with MAGA merchandise and books generating millions–the reality is a world teetering toward greater conflict- Israel’s entire military and diplomatic strategy aims for one goal: territorial expansion and regional dominance. The concept of “Greater Israel” reflects Zionists’ deep-rooted belief that all land between the Euphrates and Nile rivers was divinely promised to Jews. This ideology is not just limited to Zionist doctrine but is deeply embedded in Israel’s political discourse and society. When Trump announced the expulsion of all Palestinians from Gaza, it received widespread support within Israeli society. A survey by the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) found that 82% of Jewish Israelis considered mass expulsion of Palestinians “desirable.” Over recent months, Israel has targeted three key groups to weaken Iran’s influence in West Asia. Israeli hardliners believe this will eliminate Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, thereby humiliating and weakening Iran. Netanyahu has already called for “regime change” in Iran and spoken of “altering West Asia’s political map.” Through this, Israel seeks to establish its dominance in the region–an agenda that ultimately serves US imperialist interests.

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Frontier
Vol 58, No. 8, Aug 17 - 23, 2025